Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 1.5 TD Passes vs Washington (-140)

We like the over in this contest, and with an assist from Andy Lang, found an ideal prop bet to complement it. Last season, 13 of 17 quarterbacks cleared this total against the Commanders' defense, so blindly playing this last year would have resulted in a 13-4 record. The last six quarterbacks that Washington faced on the road last season all cleared this mark. Mayfield cashed this prop in 12 of his 19 games last season, and the most important thing is that his receiving corps is healthy heading into the start of this season. The Bucs only rushed for eight total touchdowns last season while throwing for 28. Both offenses would probably be wise to use some tempo against opposing defenses that are introducing some new pieces. During his time in Arizona, new Commanders' offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury ran the fastest offense in the league in both situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate. This game should be played at a brisk tempo, which should give Mayfield some good opportunities to hit this mark.