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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(263) Las Vegas Raiders at (264) Baltimore Ravens

Event:
(263) Las Vegas Raiders at (264) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League:
NFL
Date/Time:
September 15, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – (263) Las Vegas Raiders at (264) Baltimore Ravens Total Under 41.5 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

There are three games that have totals in the 30s this week, and in our opinion, this should be the fourth. After this week, we're anticipating Raiders' totals heading south for a while. Heading into this season, the biggest questions in Baltimore revolved around the offensive line. The Ravens were replacing some key pieces, and offensive line coach Joe D'Alessandris tragically passed away two weeks ago. Those struggles on the offensive line were prominent in Baltimore's Week 1 loss to Kansas City, and things won't get much easier against another AFC West foe this week. Under the leadership of new head coach Antonio Pierce, the Raiders have developed one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. We just said something nice about Coach Pierce, and now it's time to shred him. Trailing 16-10 with 7:15 left in the fourth quarter last week, Pierce elected to punt on 4th-and-1 from the Chargers' 43-yard-line. According to Surrender Index, a popular tool for evaluating decisions such as this, that punt falls in the 99.9th percentile of poor decisions in their database since 1999. Per betting analyst Matthew Davidow, the Raiders had a 25-percent chance of winning the game on 4th and 1. The decision to punt dropped the Raiders' win probability to 18-percent. To say that was a "conservative" decision would be an understatement, but that kind of mindset is certainly good for an under this week! The Raiders only made it into the Chargers' red zone one time last week. Baltimore was 2-3 against the spread when laying more than a touchdown last season, so the Ravens didn't beat up on inferior opponents. This feels like a 24-13 final, in our opinion.

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