Your initial reaction may be to fade Kentucky after the Wildcats suffered a heartbreaking loss to Georgia last week. The betting market has seemingly overvalued these letdown spots in recent years. Home 'dogs that lost by three points or less the prior week and are playing at home again the next week are 23-6 against the spread since 2013, including 14-2 ATS when favored by double digits. Ohio opened the year as an 18-point road 'dog at Syracuse, and now the Bobcats are essentially in that same spot here in Lexington four weeks later. You would be hard-pressed to find analysts that had Kentucky and Syracuse with the same power rating a couple weeks ago. We make the Wildcats roughly a touchdown better than The Orange. So either Ohio is the most-improved team in the country over the last three weeks, or this line is a few ticks too short. We're inclined to believe that the "letdown alert" is weighing a little too heavily into this line. Don't forget, Ohio's signature non-conference win came when South Alabama was missing its starting quarterback. Gio Lopez was unexpectedly ruled out of that contest about an hour before the game. Lopez set the school record for passing yards in the Jaguars' opening game, and they scored 87 points with him back in the lineup this past weekend. Needless to say, his absence was certainly felt two weeks ago. If Kentucky is able to shut down the Bobcats' rushing attack, that is going to put the ball in Parker Navarro's hands. Navarro threw three interceptions last week against FCS-level Morgan State and he wasn't particularly good at Syracuse in the opener. Since 2015, favorites of -14 and higher with a total of 43 or less (42.5 at the time of posting) are 76-45-3 (63%) against the spread, and that number jumps to 69% ATS if the favorite is coming off a loss. This is a 5% release at -21 or below, and would still play this as a 4% play up to -23.