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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(453) Chicago Bears at (454) Indianapolis Colts

Event:
(453) Chicago Bears at (454) Indianapolis Colts
Sport/League:
NFL
Date/Time:
September 22, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-120
Play:
3% – Indianapolis Colts -120
Result:
Win
Analysis

In last week's Colts-Packers game, a lot of attention was paid toward Malik Willis' inexperience within Green Bay's offense. That was true, but Anthony Richardson's inexperience sometimes gets lost in the shuffle as well. The Colts' second-year QB is still waiting to hit the 20-start mark...since high school! Richardson only played one season at Florida and this will be his seventh start in the NFL. That inexperience has been on full display through the first two games, and Richardson's poor play is arguably the difference between a 2-0 start and an 0-2 start. He threw three interceptions inside the Green Bay 25-yard-line (one was a last-play heave). Star running back Jonathan Taylor did not play the entire fourth quarter and only played a total of 29 snaps against the Packers because the Colts were in catch-up mode from the opening kick. Indianapolis has some major injury concerns on the defensive line, but Chicago is probably the ideal opponent for the Colts to face right now because the Bears can't block anyone. Caleb Williams has been sacked nine times through his first two games, and D'Andre Swift was held to 18 yards rushing on 14 carries in the Week 2 loss to the Texans. Indianapolis has a few issues to work out, but the Bears don't look equipped to take advantage of those issues. Through the first two weeks, Williams is 32nd out of 33 eligible QBs in quarterback EPA per play, with the now-benched Bryce Young being the only guy behind him. Despite his turnover struggles, Richardson has actually produced a positive EPA per play and sits ahead of Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. We have a transitive data point between these two teams because both played the Houston Texans in the first week. The Colts generated 7.0 yards per play against the Texans' defense and Richardson was sacked twice. The Bears generated 3.1 yards per play against the Texans' defense and Williams was sacked seven times. Should this game be lined as a pick'em? The Colts have some flaws, but we still have to see it to believe it in Chicago.

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