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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(477) Jacksonville Jaguars at (478) Buffalo Bills

Event:
(477) Jacksonville Jaguars at (478) Buffalo Bills
Sport/League:
NFL
Date/Time:
September 23, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – Buffalo Bills -5.0 (-115)
Result:
Win
Analysis

There are two ways to look at the Jaguars' 0-2 start. The optimistic view is that Jacksonville should be 1-1 at worst, and an argument could certainly be made for 2-0. The missing win is from Week 1 against the Dolphins when Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line going in for a score, which would have given the Jaguars a 24-7 lead. Following that fumble, Tyreek Hill scored two plays later to turn what should have been a three-score game into a three-point game. Last week against the Browns, the Jaguars had more yards (323-297), more yards per play (5.9-4.6), more first downs (18-17), fewer penalty yards (100-52) and didn't turn the ball over. They won the box score and lost on the scoreboard. The Jaguars were on Cleveland's two-yard-line on two separate possessions and didn't score a touchdown in either. There's the optimists' case for the Jaguars, and those are the reasons why this line has dropped through out the week. Player for player, position for position and talent for talent, this line is probably a tick too high. We are taking the more pessimistic approach. There's no way to sugarcoat it: Trevor Lawrence is no longer a top-half of the league quarterback in this Jaguars' system, and he's probably closer to the bottom-third. He's completed 50.9-percent of his passes through two games with one touchdown. Buffalo has holes on defense, but what have you seen from this Jaguars' offense to suggest that they can exploit them? The Bills will enjoy a massive rest and coaching edge in this matchup. Buffalo has extra time to prep after playing last Thursday. Josh Allen looks like an MVP candidate once again. Until we see some level of improvement from the Jaguars, we will gladly lay this number against them. Teams that have started the year 2-0 facing teams that are 0-2 are 33-26 (56%) against the spread since 2000. At the time of posting, there are multiple books at -5 (BetOnline, Bovada and Caesars). 

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