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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(119) Northern Illinois at (120) NC State

Event:
(119) Northern Illinois at (120) NC State
Sport/League:
CFB
Date/Time:
September 28, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – (119) Northern Illinois at (120) NC State Total Under 47.0 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

After NC State's 0-4 start against the spread, this was trending nicely towards a “buy low” spot on the Wolfpack, especially after they got absolutely hammered 59-35 by Clemson last week. But then Northern Illinois had to also go and lose to Buffalo as a two-touchdown home favorite. The Huskies clearly did not belong in the top-25, even after a historic upset over Notre Dame three weeks ago. They had a bye going into the Buffalo game, but still could not avoid the dreaded “letdown spot” as the Huskies lost in overtime despite a double-digit halftime lead. NIU finished with a 359-184 edge in total yards, but a couple of missed field goals proved costly as the offense did not find the end zone after halftime. It was another standout performance by the Huskies' defensive line, which held Buffalo to 1.1 yards per rush in the first half. Had NIU simply won the game, they would still (probably) be ranked and undefeated and we likely could have gotten a cheaper number here on the ‘Pack. Alas, that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Instead of focusing on the side, we’re a little more interested in the total. When Northern Illinois went to Nebraska last season, the total closed at 43 points. What have you seen from either offense thus far to suggest that this total should be higher than that? CJ Bailey made his first career start last week against Clemson, going 16-of-25 for 204 passing yards. The Wolfpack offense finished with a misleading 440 yards on offense because nearly half of those (210) came in the fourth quarter when both benches were empty. Look for NC State's coaching staff to keep things simple for the young QB with easy reads and a rushing attack.

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