Bryan Power
(929) San Diego Padres at (930) Seattle Mariners
Thank you for purchasing this $5 Best Bet from Bryan Power!
- Take $50 Off a 30-Day All Access Pass with code: OFF50 (Click to Shop Experts)
- Get a 1 Year All Sports Access Pass from your favorite expert - coming out to ONLY $99 a month - with code: ONLY99 (Click to Shop Experts)
LINK to use is https://www.wagertalk.com/experts
-----------------------------------
4% Seattle (9:40 ET): The Mariners aren’t dead yet. After blowing all of a 10-game lead in the American League West, in a stunningly short period of time, the M’s certainly seemed like they’d be left out of the postseason. But after finishing a road trip with four wins in the last five games, they are just three games back of the Wild Card and 4.5 games back of the Astros in the West. No one is playing .600 ball in the AL anymore and now the Mariners are back home - where they’re much better - as evident by a 41-28 record here (vs. 32-43 on the road). I have a lot of respect for the opponent, but the Padres shouldn’t be favorites in this series opener.
Seattle is actually 2-0 vs. San Diego already this season, both those wins coming on the road. The Padres have gotten a lot hotter over the last two months, but are now entering an environment where it’s difficult to score and they have Yu Darvish on the mound. Darvish was not good in his return from the IL last Thursday, giving up three runs in just 2 ⅔ IP. I played the Over in that game, a bet that cashed by the fourth inning. Remember what I wrote in that analysis; Darvish was making his first big league start since May and his lone rehab start went poorly with 6 runs allowed.
The Mariners obviously do not have a very prolific lineup, but the key to their success at home has been a pitching staff that gives up an average of just 3.03 runs per game here. Not only is that - by far - the lowest average allowed at home in all of MLB, but it’s a half run per game fewer than the #2 team! Tuesday starter George Kirby has certainly done his part by posting a 2.94 ERA here (4.10 on the road). Kirby also has a 1.11 WHIP for the season and just doesn’t give up many long balls at home. My expectation is that Kirby will be a lot better than Darvish and the Mariners’ bullpen can handle the rest. 4% Seattle (Play to -125)
