Colombia vs Argentina
South American World Cup Qualifiers, Tuesday, 4:30pm ET

Play: Under 2 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Colombia are coming off a tough match in Peru where they came back from one goal behind to save a point from that 1-1 draw. Now they are returning home for a very demanding match, as they are hosting Argentina on Tuesday, in the remake of the recent Copa America final (which was a goal-less draw in regular time and Argentina won by 1-0 in extra time). 

Mind you that this match is played at 3:30pm local time in Barranquilla, Colombia, with the heat and humidity levels being rather high, which is very bad for players, something that caused the anger of the Argentinians, with coach Lionel Scaloni expressing his frustration. Here are a couple of quotes:

"Now we will go to a place (Barranquilla) where it is very hot and we play at a time when we shouldn’t, but they decided that. It is a very tough rival and we will try to get a good result”

“It is true that the schedule does not help the spectacle. It is the same for everyone. I say this for the comfort of the footballer.”

“At that time there is an 80 percent chance of rain and humidity between 70 and 75 percent, it will undoubtedly be a tough match for the Albiceleste”

Right off the bat, reading between the lines on what Scaloni said, we should be expecting low rhythm under these conditions, and low rhythm means few goals. And recent data by both teams suggest a low-scoring match. 

Each of L/3 and 4 of L/5 of Colombia's matches had 2 goals or fewer, and their 3 matches against good teams in that span (Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil) had 0/1/2 goals. 

Argentina beat Chile by 3-0 a few days ago, with all 3 goals coming in the second half, while the 2nd goal was scored in the 84th minute and the 3rd goal was scored in the stoppage time, so this could have easily been an Under. Only 1 of their previous 12 matches in the Copa America and the World Cup Qualifiers had Over 2.5 Goals, whichwas a 3-0 against Bolivia. Argentina are without Messi and Di Maria, which is kind of a blow to their goalscoring opportunities, but they've consistently shown that they are not a team that goes for high-scores, they just want the results. 

The last time they met (in the Copa America Final) the match ended as a goal-less draw in regular time, and now just 1 of L/5 H2H matches had Over 2.5 Goals with 0/1/2/4/2 goals in that span. Add to that the climatic factor (afternoon match in a hot and humid atmopshere with a high chance of rain), and this is a recipe for a low-scoring match. 

Take 3u on the Under 2 Goals (-125), playable to -135