5% MISSISSIPPI STATE (-11.5) line is good to -13.5

I love this spot for the Bulldogs of Mississippi State going up against MAC staple, Toledo. Jeff Lebby's team almost pulled off the comeback against Arizona State on the road last week but gave up too much too soon in the game and ran out of time to mount the full comeback. However, as you would expect with any Lebby coached team, the offense will score and score a lot. Former Baylor Bears QB Blake Shapen showed me a lot in the 2H against Arizona State after being down 27-3 at the break. Enter a Toledo team that just is not as good as they've been in years past. The reality is this offense can't run the ball and thus far it's been big plays that have saved them. On Saturday, Toledo scored on touchdown passes of 73 and 40 yards, and returned a kickoff 98 yards. Through two games, Toledo ranks in the top 30 national in plays of 40-plus yards and the Rockets are only one of 30 teams with a play of 70-plus yards. That's what you get when you play teams like UMASS. Going to Mississippi State and playing in that environment is a different animal. This is a get right spot for Jeff Lebby's team at home and there is no way I see Toledo being able to keep up with this offense. Give me Mississippi State to win in blowout fashion.

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