4% Kansas State (8:00 ET): Anyone familiar with my handicapping knows that I tend to go “underdog-heavy” in football (both college and pro). Simply stated, I feel that - more often than not - taking points is where the “value is.” However, in the College ranks, when you have a ranked vs. ranked matchup (two Top 25 teams), it’s often the favorite that’s undervalued. To that point, favorites in these Top 25 matchups have covered 57% of the time since 2020. Oftentimes, the public sees a ranked team getting points and is “fooled” into thinking that’s where the value is. Don’t make that mistake here. I don't think Arizona even deserves to be a Top 25 team. Instead, lay it with Kansas State Friday night on FOX. 

Now I did lay a big number with Arizona in Week 1. While the Wildcats ended up scoring an impressive 61 points (QB Fifita 422 yards, WR McMillian 304 yards), they did NOT cover. It was a disgraceful defensive effort, allowing a team like New Mexico to score 39 points. A week later, it was the offense’s turn to have a disappointing effort as #BearDown scored only 22 pts against Northern Arizona. I know that the starting center was out with an injury, but that’s no excuse for trailing a FCS foe at half. McMillian finished with just two catches for 11 yards! 

There’s a chance that starting center Josh Baker returns here, but note that LT Tapa’taoutai is also hurt. Two banged up offensive lineman is obviously not ideal, but where the Wildcats figure to really struggle in this matchup is on the defensive side, stopping the run. The Kansas State offense, led by QB Avery Johnson, should move the ball at will. If you go back to my writeup on Arizona-New Mexico, it said that I would be looking to fade Arizona once they started facing Big XII opposition (new conference). This is technically a non-conference game, but I’ve never been a huge fan of new HC Brent Brennan (who took over for the wildly successful Jedd Fisch). My view is that we’re getting great value here on K-State due to the close call LW vs. Tulane. But that was a road game. The Wildcats are 11-3 ATS L14 in Manhattan. 4% Kansas State (Play to -9.5)