Procure Championship (PGA Tour)

Top-40 Finish

You can sub this for ‘Make the Cut’ but Conners record when looking at Top-40 is nearly as good.  The price when subbing jumps to -127 or higher, so I don't think it's worth it.

Conners made the weekend in all 23 starts this season including all four majors.  When looking at finishing Top-40, Conners failed to finish Top-40 just four times in 23 starts with finishes outside including: T57, T41, T44 and T50.  The guy is as consistent as they come because his ball-striking is top tier.  If he putts well, he finishes Top-20 or Top-10, if not, he finishes between 20-40 and if he struggles just slightly with around the green in addition to putting, he is outside the Top-40, but just barely.  Against this weak field, even a very poor performance should still finish Top-40.

TAKE COREY CONNERS TOP-40 FINISH PROCURE CHAMPIONSHIP -300

England Premier League

Brentford at Manchester City

Probably don't need to explain this one (or the Liverpool one), but City already leading the league by a wide margin in xG differential at +1.70 per match.  Brentford has given them a little trouble the last three seasons grabbing two wins in six games, but just look at their match at Liverpool this season as likely expectation here.  Liverpool won 2-0 with a 19-8 shot advantage including 8 to 2 on target.  The Reds also a 2.31 to 0.55 xG differential.  I expect at least similar numbers here, if not worse.

TAKE MANCHESTER CITY ML -500

Nottingham at Liverpool

If you take a look at Nottingham's numbers, they actually look solid this year, but considering their three opponents have been Bournemouth, Southampton and Wolves, you could easily argue they have just padded their stats which certainly aren't indicative of what to expect from thsi team when facing a quality opponent.

Liverpool meanwhile had an easy opening match against newly promoted Ipswich, then beat up on a tricky Brentford team (see stats above) before embarrasing United last time out.  They are a perfect 3-0 without conceding a goal.  Straight forward here.

TAKE LIVERPOOL ML -450

PARLAY COREY CONNERS TOP-40 -300 + MAN CITY ML -500 + LIVERPOOL ML -450 = -105 ODDS

Line Parameter: 4% to -125, 3% to -140