4% Over Braves/Nationals (6:40 ET): So much for Atlanta not being able to score. This often-moribund lineup erupted for 12 runs last night in what ended up being a completely dominant shutout win from start to finish. Previously, the Braves had been held to three runs or fewer in seven of nine games, and one of those two exceptions was a contest that went 11 innings. But there can be no denying that when this lineup is “right,” they score in bunches, like we saw yesterday. The big key for them is hitting home runs. They hit four of those last night and are tied for 4th most HR’s this season including #2 since the All-Star Break. 

I suspect we’ll see some more long balls hit by the Braves tonight as they face Jake Irvin, who is giving up an average of 1.4 HRs per 9 innings. Not only that, Irvin has allowed 4+ runs in 7 of his last 11 starts. Now Irvin has surprisingly had the Braves’ number this season, but the combination of his recent poor form and this being the 4th time the Braves have seen him in 2024 should lead to some different results. Last time out, Irvin gave up six runs in five innings to the Pirates, who have the 2nd lowest wRC+ against righties in all of baseball. That followed an outing where Irvin allowed 7 runs in just 4 ⅔ IP. The home run ball continues to be a major problem, which - as I said earlier - is a major problem against a team like Atlanta. 

Obviously, I don’t expect the Braves to score 12 runs again like they did last night, but with a number this low, we shouldn’t even need half that amount. I think Washington actually got a bad break last night when Braves’ starter Reynaldo Lopez had to leave the game early due to injury (Lopez is due for some major regression). But after being shut out, the Nats should have better luck at the plate tonight because they are facing Max Fried, who has not been all that great since the Break. Fried has a 4.09 ERA his L7 starts as walks have become a problem for him. Just think this number is too low, all things considered. Let’s not forget the Nats’ bullpen stinks. 4% Over Braves/Nationals (Play to 8.5)