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Analysis:
The Aces are coming off a close 75-71 loss to the Liberty, but they were without A’ja Wilson in that game. Wilson is not on the injury report today and should be ready to go for this matchup.

On the other side, the Fever are coming off a huge comeback win in overtime against the Atlanta Dream. Historically, this type of spot is a good fade opportunity, as teams tend to struggle after emotional OT wins.

A key point to mention is that the Fever haven't beaten the Aces since 2019. The Aces have dominated the matchups, including two wins this season by exactly 19 points each. However, the Fever's offense has dramatically improved since the beginning of the season. Since the Olympic break, they rank #1 in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and points per game. It’s worth noting, though, that they’ve faced a relatively easy schedule post-Olympic break, with most opponents being in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, except for the Lynx and Sun.

Defensively, the Aces have stepped up since the break, ranking 4th in turnover rate forced—a crucial factor considering the Fever's ongoing turnover issues. The Aces also excel in defensive rebounding, which could limit the Fever's second-chance points.

From a trend perspective, the Aces are just 6-10 ATS as road favorites this season, but many of those lines were inflated. When favored by less than six points on the road, they are 4-1 ATS and 4-1 to the under. Additionally, teams in the Fever's spot—home teams coming off a home overtime win—are just 4-10 ATS since 2017. If that home team is an underdog, they haven't covered a single game in that situation.

With the matchup dynamics, stats, trends, and situational angles all aligning, I’m taking the Aces minus the points. The hype around the Fever's recent form is strong, but the context favors the Aces here.