Brewers (9:45PM ET BSWI, NBCSBA, MLB.TV) – Back to back winners on the bases to start the week and that’s where we will stay on Thursday as we head to the Bay Area for the rubber match of a three game set between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California. 

The Giants have won three of their last four games but this team has virtually no chance of playing their way back into the Wild Card picture and I think Hayden Birdsong on the mound here suggests they know that to be the case. Birdsong should be working things out in the minors right now, he had barely any time at AAA before being called up out of necessity and it hasn’t taken long for big league hitters to figure him out. Birdsong has responded to that by trying to hit more corners but he doesn’t have that type of command just yet and he’s now walked 20 of the 107 batters he’s faced in his last six starts. During that span Birdsong is 0-5 with an 8.31 ERA and I just don’t see an improvement being made at the big league level THIS YEAR.  I do think the whole “trial by fire” thing could help him long term, but I don’t think it’s favorable for Birdsong to try to work it out against a Brewers team that just hammered him in Milwaukee a couple weeks ago.  Another thing that makes this difficult for Birdsong is the Brewers basically took the night off last night after going down 8-0 in the second inning so it should be a far more focused effort from the visitors here. San Francisco gave Birdsong an extra couple of days rest since his most recent start but I think this is a command issue more than it has to do with fatigue so I’m still willing to go against Birdsong with a solid Brewers lineup here.

By no means has Frankie Montas been a “bet on” guy for me this season but there’s reason to like him in this spot and going forward.  Montas has settled in since coming to Milwaukee, the Brewers are 5-2 with Montas on the mound since trading for him and he just turned in one of the best efforts of his season with 10 strikeouts in 6 innings against the Rockies.  Montas has a 3.92 ERA since the trade and will be one of the guys in consideration for a rotation spot for the Brewers in the playoffs so there’s plenty of personal gain tied to pitching well down the stretch.  These games might have less meaning to Milwaukee, who basically has the NL Central wrapped up, but one could say there’s just as much of a chance of the Cubs catching the Brewers as there is the Giants getting back into the Wild Card race so, again, I don’t think there’s more meaning here to one team or the other.  Another positive of the Brewers getting trashed by the Giants last night is all of Milwaukee’s top bullpen arms got the night off.  This Brewers bullpen has improved of late with the likes of Trevor MeGill and Devin Williams locking down late inning high leverage and I think the move of DL Hall to the bullpen could pay dividends as he’s riding a 12.2 inning scoreless streak since being recalled from Nashville.  All three of those guys are available behind Montas here and that trio was masterful in locking down the first game of this series.  If the Brewers find themselves with a lead I expect the same outcome here. 

It's certainly a possibility that Milwaukee lacks focus at times down the stretch but not a night after being dragged 13-2.  I think the Brewers will have an issue getting beat down like that yesterday and bounce back with a far better effort here.  Play on Brewers -124 for 4% (or 4 units)