3% Green Bay (1:00 ET): Strictly a numbers play for me here. With Jordan Love at QB, I’d make the Packers a 6-point home favorite in this matchup with the Colts. I just think a 9-point swing is WAY too much, even if backup Malik Willis has given us very little to be enthusiastic about his brief pro career. It also helps that the Colts are a team I’m lower on than the market. Their young QB Anthony Richardson flashes a lot of potential (what a throw last week!) but I still am expecting Indy to finish with a losing record this season. Wasn’t at all surprised to see them lose at home in Week 1 to the Texans. Now they go from home dog to road favorite? No thank you! 

Typically, when we see an injury at QB, oddsmakers “overreact” and that’s what we’ve got with this number. And since 2021, backup QBs making their first start as an underdog are actually 37-30-2 ATS. Let’s also consider how well Matt LaFleur has performed ATS as a dog in his coaching career. Despite failing to get the cash in Brazil against the Eagles, LaFleur is 22-11 ATS when catching points including 13-3 the first three weeks of the regular season. He’s also 16-10 ATS off a SU loss. Remember that Green Bay comes in with a little extra rest, having played Friday in Week 1. So even though the dropoff from Love to Willis is substantial, there’s plenty of reasons to like the Pack here. 

Not like the Colts have an elite defense either; going back to last season they’ve given up at least 20 points in 7 of the last 8 games. They just had to place top CB JuJu Brents on IR with a knee injury. It’s not just the Colts’ pass defense that is bad; they allowed Houston to run for 200+ yards as well. On offense, we’re talking about a QB with very few NFL starts laying points on the road. I was shocked that Green Bay’s defense didn’t look improved in the opener, but that was against a good Philadelphia offense. Here, at home, things should be easier and I just don’t agree with the adjustment by the oddsmakers. (For what it’s worth we’ve seen some “reverse line movement” here, possibly based on the fact Love has not been officially ruled out). 3% Green Bay (Play to Pick, unless Love somehow plays, then take best available number).