This is a prime letdown spot for the Liberty, and we've seen them falter in similar situations multiple times this season. They tend to struggle as double-digit favorites, going just 3-13 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. Additionally, when facing the same team for the second straight game, the Liberty are only 1-4 ATS and 4-1 to their team total under. In these spots, they often take their foot off the gas, as we saw in August when they played the Wings.

In the first game of that two-game series, the Liberty dominated with a 94-74 win. However, in the second game, the Wings adjusted and kept it close, losing by just 8 points and covering the 11-point spread.

The Liberty also have a potential lookahead factor with a matchup against the top-tier Lynx looming in New York. This could affect their focus in this game, making it less likely for them to cover the large 11.5-point spread.

While the Liberty should win the game, I’m not confident they cover the 11.5 points in this spot. I’ll take the Wings plus the points.