Pittsburgh (3:30PM ET ESPN2) – It’s Backyard Brawl time in the Steel City when the West Virginia Mountaineers make the quick 75 mile trip up I-79 to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 

I know people think I’m high on Syracuse this season because I live here, support the team and go to games but the main reason I’m so high on the Orange is I just don’t see many other quality options in the ACC.  The majority of these ACC teams are fades for me right now but one that’s really starting to impress me is the Pitt Panthers and I’ll back that sentiment with my money here.  It’s clear this isn’t the same Pitt squad from a season ago, the Panthers now have a quarterback in Eli Holstein who has respectable options at the skill positions and it all clicked for this group in the second half against Cincinnati last week.  Pitt came out and dominated the fourth quarter at Nippert Stadium last weekend, scoring 15 unanswered points in a comeback 28-27 victory over the Bearcats.  I don’t think that was a fluke, I think in the early going (Week 1 against Kent State and the first half of the Cincinnati game) Pitt had guys trying to get on the same page then it all happened in what turned into a glorious second half for the Panthers.  Pitt now has some confidence and the momentum of finishing off that comeback for a win and I think the offense takes another step forward on their home field here.

If Pitt figured it out against Cincinnati they should have no issues moving the ball against this abysmal West Virginia defense.  West Virginia lost quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball from last season and were steamrolled by what was a very sloppy Penn State offense on their home field in Week 1.  At a quick glance it looks like West Virginia blew out Albany last week but that was a more competitive game than that score suggests.  West Virginia gave up 374 yards of offense to FCS Albany and had it not been for a perfect 3/3 on 4th down with Albany failing to convert three times on 4th down that probably ends up being a much closer game (mind you West Virginia was favored there by 38.5 points).  Once Holstein got going last week he torched a Cincinnati secondary that’s better than the one he will be up against here.  I simply can’t see West Virginia getting the stop they need on the road to win this game.

My main concern here for Pitt is their ability to stop West Virginia but I wouldn’t be surprised if the natural surface at Acrisure slows down this West Virginia offense a bit here.  West Virginia’s attack is predicated on speed and the ability for quarterback Garrett Greene to be mobile but that’s going to be tougher on the grass here than it is on the artificial surface in Morgantown.  I feel like Pitt might have some success as a “bend but don’t break” type defense in the respect they will give up some yards but it's a well-coached unit with no glaring deficiencies.  Pitt gave up 449 yards to Cincinnati last week but only 27 points as, after the first three drives, the Panthers figured out how to stop Cincinnati’s offense from hitting the death blow.  From the second quarter on last week Cincinnati was held to a field goal attempt on the 7, held to another field goal on the 9, punted on three consecutive drives and fumbled which Pitt recovered to secure the game.  It’s those types of plays that lead me to believe Pitt is the correct side in a game that likely features points and one where West Virginia is probably the lesser of the two defensive units.

I think the books making West Virginia a favorite in a true road game in this matchup is putting too much stock into last year.  This is an improved Pitt team and one that should win on their home field here.  Play on Pittsburgh +2 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)