Dolphins (8:15PM ET Amazon) – Have beat this one to death on shows all week and finally convinced myself I can’t leave it off my Week 2 card so let’s head to the Sunshine State where the Miami Dolphins welcome the Buffalo Bills for an AFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. 

Not getting the best number here but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up moving more with Taron Johnson out.  Buffalo will be without Matt Milano until December, without that duo this is a weak back seven and I see major issues with the Bills being able to get stops here. Mike McDaniel has had excellent game plans for moving the ball against the Bills in past seasons and in most of those instances the Bills defense was in better shape than it was here.  On the other side I still have my reservations regarding the Bills even though once they got going they played great against the Cardinals last week.  Josh Allen looked more crisp than he’s been in season openers in the past but he was also up against a Cardinals defense that has as bad of a secondary as you will find in the NFL.  Even with grading out decent in the opener, that was still a game the Bills trailed 17-3 on their home field.  If Buffalo falls behind tonight I see the Dolphins being far less forgiving here.

In addition to Miami having a far better secondary than Arizona, the Dolphins have a better pass rush which should force Allen into some tougher decisions here. Allen had all day to diagnose the Cardinals defense in the second half but that will be tougher against Miami’s front four and it’s also less likely guys are just wide open against the Dolphins secondary like they were against the Cardinals.  Allen picked up an injury on his non-throwing wrist, it’s not going to hinder him throwing the ball but it could make him think twice about running or getting hit.  It also could hurt his ability to secure the football so if he does hold the ball too long (almost a guarantee to happen at some point) and the Dolphins can get home with pressure we could see a turnover or two from Allen here. 

Interesting to note all of the sharp UNDER money coming in, I disagree with it as I felt like the Bills offense looked good last week but I think if this does stay under it’s probably the Bills doing and not the Dolphins.  Again I just don’t see how this soft Bills secondary stops Hill and the Dolphins passing attack here.  Play on Dolphins 2.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)