3% Take Jacksonville State (#171).

I could do this write-up in two words: “Speed Kills’.  I’ve watched both of these teams play already this year.  Jacksonville State suffered massive graduation losses and looked awful in their opener against Coastal Carolina – clearly a better team than the Gamecocks.   Last week, they stepped up in class at Louisville and that, too, was ugly -  they allowed more than 600 total yards and didn’t force a turnover.

This week, however, Jacksonville State steps DOWN in class, playing a MUCH slower team than the ones they’ve just faced.  I like Eastern Michigan as a feisty underdog, but this team is not primed in the slightest to cover pointspreads as a favorite.  I’ve got the Eagles 9-19 ATS in 28 tries as home chalk over the past decade; 2-7 ATS over the last two seasons -- not exactly a stellar track record in games like this one.  This is NOT a homefield that’s worth anything to the pointspread…but the markets always seem to price in home field edge.  And Eastern’s showing at Washington last week – outgained by 300 yards – showed this bettor clearly that the Eagles lack team speed again in 2024.

In my 27 football seasons since I moved to Vegas, over the years, something has really stood out.  When MAC teams face off against teams from the Sun Belt or Conference USA in early season play, there’s ZERO home field edge in these games, and the non-MAC schools all tend to be faster – much faster – than their MAC counterparts.  RichRod has put together back-2-back nine win seasons in 2022 and 2023, and with an ample supply of Power 4 conference transfers – including kids from Georgia, Clemson and Ole Miss – he’s been recruiting speed since the day he got there. Wrong team favored here!  Take Jacksonville State

Line Parameter: 3% at ++1 or better, 2% at pk or worse.