Arizona comes into this Friday night matchup having won both of their games this season. However, in their lone game versus an FBS opponent they allowed 211 yards rushing in a 61-39 win over New Mexico. That is a Lobos team that is 0-2 thus far in 2024 which includes a loss to Montana State who plays at the FCS level, and a football program which hasn't won more than 4 games since 2016. Conversely, Kansas State has rushed for 215 and 283 yards while averaging 7.8 yards per rush in their 2-0 start. Look for them to pound the rock with a high degree of success at a suspect Arizona run defense. When doing so, they will wear the Arizona stop unit down as the game progresses and open up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities.

Kansas State has been very disciplined through their first 2 games while be penalized 7 times for 55 yards. That has not been the case for Arizona who has committed 19 penalties for 195 yards in their first 2 contests.

Arizona is coming off a 34-27 comeback win at Tulane last Saturday but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. Arizona is coming off a listless 22-10 home win over an FCS team Northern Arizona and did not come close to covering as a 40.0-point favorite.

Any College Football home favorite of 9.5 or less coming off a win in which they rushed for 200 or more yards but failed to cover as an away favorite, and they have won 12 or more of their previous 22 games, versus an opponent coming off a win by 34 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 15-1 SU&ATS since 2005.

Give me Kansas State minus points.