4% Oregon State (3:30 ET): Excuses were made for Oregon’s lethargic 24-14 win over FCS Idaho in the opening week of the season (Ducks closed -49!) They outgained Idaho 487-217 in total yards and had a 31-10 edge in first downs. QB Dillon Gabriel completed 41 of his 49 pass attempts for 380 yards. Yet that was still a three-point game late into the 4Q! Everyone pointed at a missed FG, red zone turnover and two fourth down misses for Oregon in that game, then decided to lay the points last week against Boise State as that number got steamed up as high as three touchdowns. Guess what? Despite TWO special teams TDs, the Ducks needed a last second FG just to win 37-34. They couldn’t even go Over their team total of 40.5, which is what I bet, even with the two special teams scores. 

Now, yet again, the Ducks are taking money this week as they head to Corvallis to face old rival Oregon State in the first non-conference edition of the “Civil War” since 1963. Personally, given what we’ve seen from them thus far, I think you’re crazy to lay this many with Oregon. Right now, I’d say the Ducks may not even be a Top 20 team in the country, and are more likely to finish third in the Big 10, then challenge Ohio State for conference supremacy. Plus, you think Oregon State might be fired up for this game? The Beavers are without a conference (this season) and will undoubtedly treat this game as their “Super Bowl.” Meanwhile, Oregon is off a hard-fought win and has its Big 10 opener (at UCLA) on deck in two weeks.

OSU has not closed +14 or higher at home since pre-COVID (2019) and they are on an incredible 17-2 SU/16-3 ATS run in Corvallis! Oregon has not won here since 2018 and lost three of the past four visits overall. I made this number far lower as I just have not been impressed with the Ducks, specifically the O-line. The Oregon State defense has allowed just 15 points in the first two games (granted, against weaker competition), but just pitched its first shutout on the road since 1983, last week at San Diego State (won 21-0). I think the Beavers can compete in the trenches - on both sides of the ball. They have two backs averaging 113+ YPG and the Oregon defense just gave up 192 yards - and 3 TDs - to Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. Yes, there’s been a lot of turnover with Oregon State from last year (players & coaches), but we’re getting their best effort here and that has me taking the points. 4% Oregon State (Play to +14.5)