Central Florida (7:30PM ET FOX) – I’m going to bet mostly ACC and MAC because those are the two conferences I follow the closest but I’ve got a handful of programs where I’ve developed contacts and one of those is in play here in a Big 12 battle between the UCF Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

I’m friends with a few TCU alumni who follow the program closely and the vibe I’ve gotten since the summer isn’t overly optimistic regarding this season for the Horned Frogs.  It could be because the bar in Fort Worth has now been set insanely high thanks to TCU’s improbable run to the 2022 National Championship game and the fact the Frogs followed it up with a losing 5-7 campaign.  TCU might improve on 5-7 this season but this team isn’t much better and there’s big time question marks offensively as the Frogs had to completely rebuild their offensive line. It’s also tough to tell if Josh Hoover is anything more than a decent backup quarterback and I don’t think games against Stanford or LIU Brooklyn are giving anyone the answer to that question. Defensively TCU should be fine but this could be a tough matchup against Central Florida’s explosive rushing attack. It’s still early but UCF enters play with the top rushing attack in the country and if the Knights can control time of possession by running the ball I think they can bleed out the Horned Frogs here.

I’ve got standard knowledge of Central Florida but what I will say in regards to the Knights is I love the KJ Jefferson addition since he’s someone I was high on last year at Arkansas.  Jefferson had a bad year last year but that wasn’t his fault as Arkansas was a complete mess. At UCF Jefferson inherits a running back in RJ Harvey that’s as good as anyone in the conference and an offensive line that can actually block for him and allow him to make plays.  Even with Arkansas dysfunctional offensive unit Jefferson still showed off his ability to make plays so I think there’s a ton of upside with Jefferson in a far more organized offense here.  Central Florida wasn’t good defensively last season but hit the portal hard and came away with a roster that grades out well.  FCS New Hampshire and Sam Houston State aren’t exactly the world beater type that’s going to test a defense but neither moved the ball against UCF so it’s very possible the Knights improved defensively and can show that here.  TCU was extremely fortunate in the Stanford game to go 8 for 15 on third down but still needed to come from behind to beat a lowly Cardinal team.  I also thought TCU committed some sloppy penalties and did so again last week against LIU Brooklyn (I didn’t know they had a football team until last week they have to be one of the worst teams in FCS) and I think that shows up in a game where the margin for error much thinner. 

As I work my way down the ranks of the Big 12 almost every single one of these teams has something I dislike until I get to Central Florida.  The addition of KJ Jefferson instantly put Central Florida on my radar and I think this is a Knights team that improved in all three phases of the game.  I can’t say the same for TCU, what I see with the Horned Frogs is a very similar squad to the one they had last season that went 5-7.  It’s important to point out TCU lost a bunch of close games and their luck could flip this season but I just don’t see much upside with this Horned Frogs team. I think the books have this priced as two teams that are equals somewhere in the abyss that is the middle section of the Big 12 standings but UCF has the upside of a team that can contend to win this conference (especially with the flaws of the other “top” teams in this league. A month from now we will be laughing at UCF being an underdog in this game.  Play on Central Florida +1 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)