Gladbach vs Stuttgart
Bundesliga, Saturday, 9:30am ET

Play: Gladbach +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

Gladbach are coming off a strong 2-0 away win at Bochum prior to the break, scoring both goals in the second half and generating 2.84 xG. They also looked really good in the league opener against Leverkusen, despite losing by 3-2, in a match where they conceded the losing goal in the 11th (!) minute of stoppage time and they still generated 2.19 xG against the reigning champions. Gladbach had a terrible season last year, but they have now started off on a good note and they will play host to Stuttgart on Saturday. 

Stuttgart have undergone some changes in the off-season, and big ones too, as they sold their two starting center backs (Ito and Anton) to Bayern Munich and Dortmund respectively, along with key striker Guirassy, who also joined Dortmund. They didn't really get any good reinforcements at the back, and it shows, as they started off with a bad 3-1 loss on the road against Freiburg, generating just 0.46 xG to Freiburg's 2.66, and then they were held to a 3-3 draw against Mainz (despite generating 5.21 xG in that match). Their offense is looking sharp, but their defense is very prone to mistakes and will take some time for the new-look defense to get some chemistry. 

The two teams exchanged home wins in each of L/2 seasons, and this is a match-up that has favoured whoever was hosting in recent years, with just 2 of L/15 H2H matches being won by the visitors. That means that over the last decade, Gladbach have lost just 1 of 10 home matches against Stuttgart (W6 D3 L1).

Take 4u on Gladbach +0.25 (-120), which is a split line between Gladbach PK and Gladbach +0.5