4% Washington ML (1:00 ET): Please note that I’m playing the Commanders MONEY LINE here. I think, in a few months' time, we’ll all look back and laugh about how we were able to fade the Giants at essentially “pick ‘em prices” the first two weeks of the season. I did so in Week 1 as they got routed at home by the Vikings 28-6. The defense made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana as Darnold completed his first 12 pass attempts. Meanwhile, the Giants’ $40 million signal caller Daniel Jones was completely inept with just 186 yards on 22 completions and he threw a back-breaking pick-six in the 3Q. I think there’s a case to be made that the G-men likely end up having the worst record in the entire league this season. 

Now Washington’s resume isn’t exactly a whole lot better as they got bounced last week in Tampa, losing 37-20 as 4-point underdogs. It was the Commanders’ ninth consecutive loss dating back to last season, the longest active skid in the league. Rough start for rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the former Heisman Trophy winner at LSU, but he did have a team-high 88 yards rushing and completed 17 of 24 pass attempts. Now the fact he ran 16 times isn’t all that encouraging. But the Giants don’t blitz as much as the Bucs do and hopefully that means we’ll see more of Daniels in the pocket. He was 12 of 15 for 139 yards when the Bucs did NOT blitz last week. 

The Giants’ do have a formidable front four on defense, but the rest of this roster - save for rookie WR Nabers - STINKS. Jones actually does have strong career numbers against the Commanders, but the fact he has one more pick six than TD passes since signing that huge contract seems VERY bad. Coming into the 2024 season, I had the Commanders rated higher than the G-men and feel that after being swept LY, they’d likely have this matchup circled as a “must-win.” At home, against one of the (at best) bottom two teams in the league is about as “winnable” as it gets for Washington. They are undervalued here, both on the spread and ML. I’ll lay the juice, so that all I need is a SU win. 4% Washington ML (Play to -135)