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(175) UTSA at (176) Texas   (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: 4%

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 55.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Sep 14, 2024 7:00 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

4% Teaxs-San Antonio @ Texas

In the end when it comes to sports betting the game is and will always be about attacking numbers. There’s an assortment of ways to draw conclusions as to why to bet a side or total but sometimes the handicap simply boils down to the singular aspect of the current posted number. Such is the case here in a similar spot to one tried earlier this season in the Texas-Colorado State game. Game total opened 59 & pushed up to 62 and the final landed 52-0. Early there were a couple other scoring drives that came up empty so game at a minimum had solid opportunity to find its way to 58. This time around the Texas opponent is UTSA whose defense has shown erosion not just last week vs. Texas State when they allowed 504 total yards and 49 points but dating back to LY where the allowed 27+ points in 6 of their final 10G. It spells trouble against this ultra potent Texas offense which just sawed through defensively stout Michigan for 31 points & 389 total yards. Roadrunners were equal opportunity yardage givers last week (195 ry / 309 py) while Texas claimed it by land and air impressively vs Michigan (4.5 ypr / 66.7% comp). Passing game matchup likely presents largest Longhorns advantage but vulnerabilities shown by UTSA suggest chunk plays will be obtained both ways. Fundamentals point toward Texas potentially repeating their 52 point output vs. Colorado State. UTSA is a Texas little brother football program that the Longhorns will likely have some motivation to make a statement. Texas-San Antonio will have that same motivation from the opposite perspective so they probably get on the scoreboard unlike CSU. Good news for blowout fearing “over” bettors is that when QB Quinn Ewers comes out…backup Arch Manning enters and HC Steve Sarkisian’s play calling continues as noted by the 14 points scored in the late 3Q & 4Q minutes of what was already a 38-0 blowout. Which brings us full circle back to betting numbers. This time it’s 55.5 shown by the board which is beneath 3 key numbers below where the Colorado State game opened and 5 less than where it closed. That’s a lot of friendly territory there which makes this a solid numbers play.          

Play: Texas-San Antonio-Texas OVER 55.5