4% Rotation #205: CFB Saturday 4% OVER 47.5 -115 in California Golden Bears vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 10:30 ET - As of 7:05 AM ET, the over in his one is available at 47.5 and -115 juice as the standard line at FanDuel. We'll take it as this one already has dropped from as high as a 51 during the week and needing just 48 to be a winner here is a solid value. San Diego State is off a shutout loss but give credit to an Oregon State defense that looks very strong again. I know the Aztecs faced a weak foe in their big Week 1 win but scoring 42 points in the 2nd half of that game (28 via the offense) is a sign this team can get confidence rolling once they establish their ground game. I look for that to be the case here against Cal and I like the fact that so much has been of this Bears pass defense too but they faced an FCS school in Week 1 and then an Auburn team that last season had nearly twice as many rushing attempts as pass attempts. So don't be surprised if the Aztecs do get their aerial attack going again and this is a good spot to fade an over-confident Cal defense. The Bears off the FCS win in Week 1 and then the big win over an SEC school in Week 2 and now with their first-ever ACC season opener on deck at Florida State. Remember they were at Auburn last week too so the back and forth travel may not help matters. I look for the defense to get caught being a big complacent here as a result. It is just the nature of the game when teams are in situations like this. But I do really like the Cal offense to move the ball well here as San Diego State did allow 420 yards last week to the Beavers who certainly should have had more than 21 points. On the other side of the ball, the Bears allowed over 200 yards passing to UC Davis in Week 1 but managed to get some turnovers. The Aztecs are ready to turn things around with an emphasis on the offensive side of the ball coming off that shutout loss. They will be successful in doing so here as this Cal defense is over-rated right now. The Cal offense a big reason they are favored by 17 points here and if we get SDG State into the 21 point range that puts this at the 38-21 Cal range and that is double digits above the current posted total here. Aztecs QB Danny O'Neill is a freshman and after performing well against lesser competition, last week was a good baptism by fire for him versus a tough defense and that will serve him well this week. Bounce back time for him and for this Aztecs offense including a very capable ground game. But the D will not slow down the Cal offense. Remember they gave up over 400 yards to the Beavers last week and this D looks a lot like the defense last season that had some ugly performances giving up huge points in a number of games. More of the same here and a 38-21 range sounds about right in this one! 4% OVER 47.5 -115 in California