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1 PM ET -- NFL

265 Los Angeles Chargers 
266 Carolina Panthers

Play 266 CAROLINA +5 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at +3.5 or better 
2% play at +3

They say that sometimes the best bets to make are the hardest ones to make.  This one certainly qualifies.  Week 2 of the NFL season is often referred to as "Overreaction Week" in the betting world.  Most bettors will overreact to what they saw in Week 1, and that sets up this play perfectly.  

Carolina, 2-15 last season, opened this season by getting drilled 47-10 in New Orleans.  Meanwhile, the Chargers opened the Jim Harbaugh era with a 12-point win over the Raiders.  The Harbaugh hype and those Week 1 results sure make the Chargers look like an easy play here laying less than a TD.  But, if something looks too good to be true...

Let's pump the brakes on the Chargers.  Sure, they upgraded in the coaching department, but they lost a lot of players in the offseason, have a vulnerable secondary, a rebuilt offensive line, and a subpar receiving corps.  Yes, Dave Canales' Carolina head coaching debut was a disaster, but he did an outstanding job working with Baker Mayfield as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay.  So it's reasonable to expect QB Bryce Young to take a step forward this season.

The line being under a TD is going to entice a lot of bettors to lay it with LA.  I will not be one of those bettors.  I like to zag when others zig.  Embarrassment is a powerful motivator.  The Panthers can hang here at home.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Play ON Week 2 or Week 3 home underdogs if the total is set at 43.5 or less and the team lost its previous game.  21-8-2 ATS (72.4%) since 2015.

Play AGAINST September road favorites of -7 or smaller after Week 1 if they're coming off a home win.  32-10-1 ATS (76.2%) since 2016.