4% Rotation #289: NFL Sunday 4% OVER 45 in Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Right now this line is in the 45 to 45.5 range as of 8:30 AM ET. Of course it is hard to say with certainty which way this line will move but downward would not surprise me as it has already dropped a little. As of this time, 45 is available at places like bookmaker and betonline. Certainly having 45 can be a key number in NFL totals and I would rather have a push than a loss if it lands on 45 exactly. In terms of Vegas books right now southpoint is one of the ones at 45. So there is some 45 out there and we are grabbing it now and looking for people to be surprised in this one. You wouldn't think a total in the 47 range would have been the opener here and, sure enough, people are hammering the under. Keep in mind, the odds makers are well aware of how bad the Bears offense looked last week and yet still hung a 47 on this one. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and one of the best sports to be a contrarian for wagering success is the NFL. Something looked funny with this total right out of the gate and, sure enough, upon further review there is plenty to like with this one! Chicago's run defense was not great last week in terms of yards per carry and the Texans ran for over 200 yards last week. Houston getting their run game going will open things up for QB Stroud to attack through the air. Not only did Stroud have a huge season last year but he was particularly strong at home! In his starts in Houston Stroud had 17 of his 23 passing TDs on the season! He averaged 300+ yards passing in his home games last season! The Bears Caleb Williams struggled as expected in his rookie debut last week versus Tennessee but look for his 2nd start to be much better. Getting that first one out of the way always big for a rookie and Houston did rank in the bottom third of the NFL (along with Chicago) in terms of passing yards allowed last season. Don't be fooled by the rather big total here. It was set this way with good reason! 4% OVER 45 in Houston