Independiente Rivadavia vs Defensa y Justicia
Argentina, Monday, 8pm ET

Play: Over 2 Goals 
Odds at Time of Release: +103
Line Parameter: Playable to -115

Independiente Rivadavia are threatened by relegation and are dying for some points right now, and they are hosting Defensa y Justicia who also want the points in order to climb the standings and claim a ticket to the Copa Sudamericana next season. We are looking at goals here, and the Over 2 Goals looks like a safe way to bet on this match.

Each of L/5 of Rivadavia's matches had 2 goals or more, with 3 of those going to the Over 2.5 Goals. 7 of Defensa's L/9 matches had 2 goals or more, with 4 of those going to the Over 2.5 goals. 

The H2H is filled with matches with at least 2 goals, but those were played more than 10 years ago and we are not basing our prediction on that alone, but for the record, each of L/12 H2H had 2 goals or more, with 9 of 12 going to the Over 2.5 goals. 

Rivadavia rarely keep clean sheets at home, Defensa have zero clean sheets away from home, and both teams are in a position where they absolutely need points. Based on what these two need, combined with their bad defenses, I think we see goals here. This looks like a Both Teams to Score to me, but I am more than happy to take the Over 2 Goals at +103, which is the safer path. 

Take 3u on the Over 2 Goals (+103), playable to -115