3% Kansas City Royals (-145) over Detroit — KC w/ Lugo — good as 3% up to (-165) — 

Despite the fact that Detroit doesn’t currently have a listend SP this morning, and their solid record in the L10 games, they have consistently struggled against the AL Central this season. When you add in the parameters of them playing as an underdog, Detroit is just 9-15 as a D in divisional games, and 5-14 SU as a dog of more than (+105). Outside of Skubal there isn’t a single starting pitcher that could convince me to side with the Tigers in this situation, but Skubal is scheduled to go on Wednesday and just pitched last Thursday, so odds are good that he won’t find his way to the mound today. 

Kansas City has been on a run this season on the opposite end of the spectrum against the division. When playing at home against the AL Central they are 18-5 TY and have the best overall record in divisional games of any team in baseball. When you take out the home games against Cleveland, they are 14-2 TY @ H vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Twins, including 14 STRAIGHT WINS! They are 15-1 as a HF vs. their central foes, and Lugo has been on the mound for a good chunk of those games. 

Lugo has gotten the Royals the win in 4 straight @ H vs. AL Central opponents and 8 of the L10 overall against those divisional foes. In his L3 starts Lugo is 2-0 w/ an 0.86 ERA against 3 of the best teams in baseball, Cleveland, Houston and the Yankees. In those 3 starts combined he threw 21 IP, struck out 23 batters and walked only 2. Despite giving up 15 hits he gave up just 2 ERs, including 7 shutout innings against the Yankees his last time on the mound.