3% Philadelphia (7:40 ET): This is a really key series between division leaders in the National League where the Phillies hold the inside track for home field advantage in the upcoming postseason. The Phils are two games up on the West-leading Dodgers and four up on Milwaukee, which is where they are to start the week. A quick glance at the starting pitching matchup for tonight’s series opener might lead one to believe the Brew Crew have the advantage here, but as I mentioned this morning on the Power 5, Phils starter Ranger Suarez has actually been better on the road (than at home the L2 seasons). I also think the Phillies are simply the better team here and will thus back them as short road favorites. 

Aaron Civale, the starter in question here for Milwaukee, is 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA his L6 trips to the mound. He’s definitely been better here than he was for Tampa Bay, but Civale’s ERA for the season is still 4.57 and he’s up against a good lineup in this one (Phillies are 2nd in the NL in runs scored). I also think a 4.51 xFIP for Civale is another cause for concern and sign potential regression might be on the horizon. 

When these teams played back in June (at Philadelphia), the Phillies swept the three-game series. Now I know the Phillies have a better record at home, but the Brewers also happen to have a better record on the road (than at home) this year. Suarez has a 3.09 FIP (much better than Civale) and to my earlier point, Suarez’s ERA is almost two full points lower on the road vs. at home since the start of the 2023 season. This season, Suarez has a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the highway. He also tends to get a lot of run support and the team is 17-7 with him on the mound overall this season. 3% Philadelphia (Play to -125)