905 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Ranger Suarez is having a breakout season for the Phillies. He enters play with a 3.05 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, his xERA backs that up at 3.38. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and ground ball percentage. So he keeps the opposition off-balance, and makes them hit the ball on the ground. On the road he owns a 2.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 72 to 16 K-BB ratio. This is also the first time he has faced the Brewers, an advantage for the pitcher. 

Aaron Civiale is only better than league average in one category. His walk rate is in the 56th percentile. Every other advanced stat shows Civale should be faded. A 3rd percentile in extension, 13th percentile in ground ball rate, and 25th percentile in whiff %. His year to date traditional numbers show a 4.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Since coming over to Milwaukee he has allowed 25 earned runs in 58.2 innings. 

These are two of the best hitting teams in baseball, so either team can go off on any pitching staff. But the Phillies have won 8 of 10 as of late, and look to be the deeper of these two clubs. A first five play is also a good choice in this one.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

Good to -115