We bet the Pats TT Under 16.5 in game 1 and cashed it. Came back in game 2 and bet it again and lost, as they put up 20. But nothing has changed in my mind, as I just do not think this Pats team is going to score more than 16 points on average a game. I have stated over and over that they will run the ball all game long and show us the most conservative offense in the league. Currently, they are averaging 18 points per game, but now they are playing a vicious D unit in NY and I don’t think they get near 18 points. Why am I not playing their TT under - because, I love the Under in this game even more. Sure the Jets have allowed 21.5 points a game, but this is an elite D that we are catching when their market value is low. The Jets also have a very conservative offense, relying heavily on the run and moving the ball methodically down the field. They literally held the ball for 30 minutes against the Titans and only got 16 first downs. Like the Pats, both these teams will use all 3 downs to move those chains.

Furthermore, neither of these teams are looking to pass the ball and especially deep passes. Rogers put up 164 yards in the air last game and under 200 against SF, while having to play catchup all game.

Also, for the record, these prime time games are 59% to the Under in the last 4 years and Thursday night games going Under is the best bet on the board week in week out.