UPDATE: This line has shifted to 79.5 and I still like it towards the under, but lower it to a 1% play.

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The Aces come into this game in excellent form, boasting a 7-1 straight-up record and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. However, they've been on the road for 12 straight games, and the travel fatigue appears to be catching up with them. This has been evident in their recent offensive performances, where they've slowed down considerably, averaging just 78 points per game in their last five outings, which includes two games against a weak Fever defense.

Meanwhile, the Storm's offense has been finding its rhythm, scoring 90 points in three of their last four games, even managing one of those without key players Ezi Magbegor and Jewell Loyd, who will both be out again in this matchup. However, we often see role players step up initially when key players are absent, only for a significant letdown in the following game. Given this dynamic and the fact that this game is a preview of their upcoming playoff matchup, we can expect a playoff-like atmosphere, which typically translates to a slower pace and a more defensive-minded game.

From a trends and angles perspective, both teams have been strong on first-half unders this season. The Aces are 29-9 to the first-half under, while the Storm are 26-12 to the first-half under. Since the Olympic break, the Aces are 12-2 to the first-half under, including a perfect 7-0 when they are road favorites, as they are in this matchup. As underdogs, the Storm have averaged a combined 73.3 points per game in the first half over an eight-game sample size, which includes three games against the Aces. All three of those matchups went under in the first half.

Given these trends, I'm backing the first-half under once again, expecting a tightly contested, defensive battle to start this game.