3% Take Nebraska (#308)

I watched these two teams play last year in Champaign, a double digit Cornhuskers victory. Illinois running backs combined for a grand total of 24 rushing yards on 12 attempts; Illini QB Luke Altmyer was sacked twice – six tackles for loss in that game for the ‘Huskers, and complete domination at the line of scrimmage.  I’m not convinced the rematch in Lincoln is going to be any better for Brett Bielema’s offense this time around.

Nebraska hasn’t allowed more than ten points in any game this season – Matt Rhule’s defense is downright nasty – eight starters returning and a Top 10 (nationally) defensive line.  Coach Bielema knows what’s coming, spending his press conferences this week talking about the need to get the Illini run game going this week.  Good luck with that, coach – easier said than done, as Illinois takes a MAJOR step up in defensive class compared to anything they’ve faced this season.

Nebraska underachieved throughout the Scott Frost era, losing a bevy of close ‘winnable’ games in his five years on the job.  Last year, the Cornhuskers still came up short repeatedly in Matt Rhule’s first year, losing four games (including three of their last four) by a FG or less; excruciating for their fan base and their betting market backers, but a clear sign that improvement was finally on the way.

That improvement has been on full display from Day 1 this season with stud frosh Dylan Raiola stabling the QB position; a strong OL protecting him and a defense that has controlled the flow in every game thusfar.  With 90,000 fans packing Memorial Stadium tonight, look for the home favorite to put on a ‘we’re back as a college football program to pay attention too’ performance in Illinois road debut tonight.  Take Nebraska

Line Parameter: 3% at -9.5 or lower, 2% at -10 or higher