3% Over Phillies/Mets (7:10 ET): Going back to May 15th, the Phillies and Mets have met a total of eight times. Seven of those eight games have seen the NL East rivals combine for at least nine runs. The one exception, you ask? That was last Sunday with the same starting pitching matchup we have tonight - Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies and David Peterson for Mets. That ended up being a 2-1 win for the Phils. Why should we expect more runs this time around? Well, in addition to the fact the teams just combined for 16 last night, Peterson’s success in 2024 has been pretty fraudulent and Sanchez is NOT the same pitcher on the road that he is at home (last Sunday’s game was in Philly). 

Regarding Peterson, I’ve been VERY vocal for months now that his ERA (2.85) is highly misleading and not truly indicative of how he’s actually pitched. We’re talking about a guy that averages 3.5 walks per nine innings with a 3.86 FIP and an xERA of 4.75. So all sorts of negative regression signs across his profile. I realize that we’re rapidly running out of season for Peterson to regress, but the team has lost his last two starts and he did have a “blow up” (5 runs allowed) in Toronto 10 days ago. Considering this Phillies’ lineup JUST saw him five days ago, and Peterson has a career 4.57 ERA vs. them, I’d expect some more runs from a lineup that is top five for the season in runs per game (4.8). Also, the Mets’ bullpen is pretty middle of the road. Keep in mind the Phillies have scored at least four runs in all but two of the 10 meetings vs. the Mets this season. 

The Mets are actually right ahead of the Phillies in terms of runs per game (ranking 4th overall in MLB). No Francisco Lindor in the lineup again tonight, which you’d think would be a crushing blow, but the Metropolitans have actually put up 30 runs in the last three games, all w/o Lindor! It’s the first time in FRANCHISE HISTORY the Mets have scored 10+ runs in three consecutive contests. Here they should benefit from facing Sanchez at Citi Field and not Citizens Bank Park. On the road, Sanchez sees his ERA jump more than three full points to 5.13 for one of the most drastic home vs. road splits you’ll see for any starter across all of MLB. Furthemore, the Mets should have more opportunities to score late in the game as the Phillies’ bullpen ranks in the bottom third of baseball - by ERA - going back to July 1st. Considering all of the above, this total should not be so low. 3% Over Phillies/Mets (Play 7.5 or lower)