Twins (7:10PM ET BSN, NESN, MLB.TV) – We go 2-2 on Thursday thanks to the Twins not being able to pull one out in extra innings but I’m right back on them here when Minnesota heads to Boston to kick off a three game set with the Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Minnesota has to get it together, the Twins have now lost 5 of 7 and any cushion they had in the AL Wild Card race as yesterday’s loss put them dead even with the Tigers.  Seattle is just two games back after beating the Yankees yesterday while these Red Sox still have a pulse at four games back so a monster game for both teams but one in which I think the Twins have the upper hand.  I’m not entirely sure what Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli was thinking yesterday trotting Caleb Thielbar out there for the 10th inning but the ONLY thing that makes sense is he felt like the Twins missed their shot in the top of the inning with Correa and Buxton and it made more sense to save pitching for today.  Griffin Jax threw just 15 pitches in the 9th coming off an off day and Jhoan Duran has pitched three consecutive days on a couple occasions so the only thing that makes any sense is Baldelli didn’t want to use all his bullets yesterday AND lose which would have put the Twins in a tough spot here.  While Baldelli’s managing cost us a win yesterday, it sets the Twins up nicely for today’s game as they are now guaranteed to have the combo of Jax and Duran in the final innings closing this out.  There isn’t a doubt in my mind Minnesota has the better starting pitcher here so I think this overall sets up far better for the visitors who I still believe to be the better of these two teams.

I love David Festa, I’m impressed with what I’ve seen out of him at AAA and in MLB this season but he does struggle the second time through the order and I’m hoping Baldelli manages accordingly here.  Festa has been great first time through the order but he hasn’t developed a strong enough third and fourth pitch at this point (something he would be working on in the minors if the Twins didn’t have wholesale injuries to their pitching staff) so it’s important to not push Festa to the point where he’s in trouble and giving up a big inning (something Baldelli has done to him a couple of times this season).  The goal here for the Twins will be to get 4-5 solid innings from Festa, Minnesota knows they have the 8th and 9th taken care of and this game is so important I wouldn’t be surprised if they went to Jax in the 7th if needed. Middle relief has been Minnesota’s issue all season but I don’t mind Ronny Henriquez in that “bridge” roll so to me this looks something like Festa to Henriquez to Jax to Duran which is notably better than how the Red Sox will stack up here.   Boston has gone cold offensively, the Red Sox have scored 7 runs TOTAL over their past four games and look like a defeated team that knows the playoffs will likely have to wait until next season.  Minnesota might have blown their lead but the Wild Card is still very much in their grasp and I think they regain control with a win here.

Richard Fitts has been solid in his first two big league starts but I’ve watched a ton of Fitts with Worcester this season and in no way, shape or form is he the superior option to Festa.  Ultimately I think Fitts will be a reliable innings eater out of the bullpen, he’s definitely serviceable at the AAA level but nothing about his stuff is dominant and I can’t see him holding down this Twins offense for 5-6 innings here (like he’s done in his first two starts).  I think Fitts probably goes five and gives up a couple, putting this game into the hands of a Red Sox bullpen that rates out as a bottom five bullpen in the league. Minnesota has their own bullpen issues but those all stem from a lack of depth which won’t be as glaring here knowing they have Henriquez to Jax to Duran after Festa in this game. Minnesota hasn’t done themselves any favors the past couple weeks but the Twins are still in the drivers seat in the AL Wild Card race and regain control with a win here.  Play on Twins -109 for 4% (or 4 units)