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4% Baylor (12:00 ET): BYU is now in the Top 25. Not sure that’s something many anticipated would happen coming into the season for a team many had pegged to finish near the bottom of the Big XII. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread. But I think now is a good time to fade the team from Provo. I will give them credit for beating Kansas State 38-9 last week. But a very misleading final, when you dig into the box score. BYU was actually outgained 367-241 and averaged just 5.6 yards on only 48 plays. Don’t see that too often in a 38-9 win. 

The key was a series of plays - on both sides of the half - resulting in the Cougars going from down 6-3 to up 31-6 pretty quick. Included in that were non-offensive TDs, one a fumble return and the other a long punt return. Furthermore, the offense had two short-field touchdown drives after interceptions by the defense. This week, don't be surprised if the turnover battle goes AGAINST BYU as QB Jake Retzlaff has gotten away with some passes that probably should have been intercepted. Also, check this out: Teams that won the previous week while being outgained by 120 or more yards, and are now an away dog: 29-50-2 ATS. Filtering out dogs of 21 or more, the trend is 19-45-2 ATS! 

So a good fade spot IMO for BYU, who is still missing their starting RB (LJ Martin). And I also want to back Baylor, who is coming off a stunning loss to Colorado last Saturday night. Shades of Michael Westbrook breaking Michigan’s heart 30 years ago. That was a game the Bears led most of the way. They were up two touchdowns at one point, before losing in OT. And this is the first time this season (I believe) where we have an unranked team favored against a Top 25 opponent. That’s a situation in college - whether you’re talking football or basketball - that I tend to gravitate towards. Looking at the Baylor QB situation, I believe Sawyer Robertson is actually an upgrade over Dequan Finn. 4% Baylor (Play to -4)