Falcons (1PM ET FOX) – We split NFL 2-2 last week so it’s on to Week 4 where we start things off down south when the Atlanta Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. 

As of Saturday, this is the only move for Week 5 I’ve already locked in but I’m pretty happy about making this move earlier this week as we beat the market by .30 cents on the money line and the spread here is now up to -3. Reasoned this one out on Spaces on Wednesday, the Saints are a team I wanted to find a spot to play against and thought their injury concerns were worse than they were letting on earlier in the week.  That turned out to be the case, the Saints are down multiple offensive lineman and now Demario Davis has been ruled out due to injury for the first time in his 13 year career!  Davis tweaked a hamstring and that’s a big loss for the Saints defense so yet another reason New Orleans might be up against it here.  I also like this matchup for the Falcons, especially if they recommit to getting pressure on the quarterback which was the strength of Atlanta’s defense last season.  The Falcons have struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks but I think some of that has to do with the fact they have played the Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs, all teams with mobile quarterbacks and solid offensive lines.  Derek Carr is the opposite of a mobile quarterback, when Carr has to move laterally he makes mistakes and he’s down multiple offensive linemen here.  I expect to see the Saints offense function more like it did last week (just 12 points) than it did when they were putting up video game numbers in Week 1 and Week 2.

Atlanta has some of their own injury issues, but I think it’s more likely the Falcons can overcome them here.  Kirk Cousins is a liability when pressured too but Davis being out now leaves a hole in the middle of the Saints defense.  Atlanta has the perfect weapons to exploit the middle of the field, specifically Bijan Robinson who the Falcons are likely to get more involved in the passing game than they have the first few weeks of the season.  I could also see Kyle Pitts finally having a good game, his targets have gone up each week so far this year and he was mauled on what probably should have at least put his team on the one yard line with a chance to take the lead with four minutes to go last week.  Robinson and Pitts should make life easier on Cousins dealing with pressure and, since I’m not expecting a ton out of the Saints offense, I think the Falcons will be able to do enough to establish the upper hand here.

The Falcons have to be motivated here, there’s the obvious motivation angle against a division rival in the Saints but this is a defense that’s steadily improved the past couple seasons and has just three sacks in three games so far this year (31st out of 32 teams).  That’s not at all what I envisioned when Atlanta went out and got Matthew Judon and I think he and Grady Jarrett finally get the Falcons pass rush going against what will be the weakest offensive front they have seen to date. I feel good about our bet here, I still prefer the money line but would probably also lay the -3.  Play on Falcons -125 for 4% (or 4 units)