3% Oklahoma State (12:00 ET): I’ve read a lot of support for the Kansas State side in this battle of ranked Big 12 rivals, the crux of which seems to be based on two things: (1) home field advantage and (2) last week’s misleading results. Both of these teams lost last week; Oklahoma State 22-19 at home to Utah (closed as 1-point dogs) and Kansas State 38-9 at BYU (closed as 7.5-point favorites). Now, it’s absolutely true that OK State trailed 22-3 going into the 4Q while Kansas State actually outgained BYU by a substantial margin (126 yards to be exact). However, to me, K-State’s loss was still obviously worse - both in terms of final margin and falling short of expectation. 

As far as home field advantage goes, yes, whomever has hosted is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU the last six years in this matchup. No doubt that K-State typically enjoys a very solid home field edge at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. However, even after factoring in the home field edge, I just can’t get to this number. OK State HC Mike Gundy is 9-5 ATS as an away dog the L6 seasons and his team beat K State 29-21 last season in Stillwater. I think it’s fair to say that the gap between these teams hasn’t changed that much over the last year. In fact, I have the Cowboys power rated as the better team coming into this matchup! 

This past Saturday on WagerTalk’s Last Call w/ KIV, I talked about Kansas State’s 31-7 win over Arizona two weeks ago. That was a 4% Best Bet winner for me. However, I expressed concern over an offensive game plan that seemingly entailed QB Avery Johnson scrambling for first downs and little else. Against BYU, Johnson had 11 carries for 74 yards, but completed only 15 of 28 pass attempts for 130 yards and had two interceptions. He's now just 3 of 15 for the season on passes of 20+ yards. 

While I concede that it’s fair to call that final score vs. BYU “misleading,” remember that Kansas State was fortunate to win at Tulane three weeks ago. Oklahoma State’s futile rally made its final score misleading as well last week, but that was against Utah, the best team in the Big 12 (even with a backup QB). I expect Cowboys QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon to BOTH be much more productive this week than they were against the Utes. Give me the Pokes plus the points, and they are live to win this game outright. 3% Oklahoma State (Play to +3.5)