2% Baltimore ML (8:20 ET): Playing the money line here as I think the Ravens will end the Bills’ unbeaten (3-0 SU) start to the season. They are getting Buffalo on a short week, and in Baltimore no less. Yes, the Bills looked like the best team in football Monday night, but the Jaguars’ defensive game plan was a disaster from the start and quite frankly I’m not sure what they were thinking. Now the Ravens’ former DC Mike MacDonald (now HC in Seattle) is sorely missed as this defense has not played well AT ALL in the 4Q each of the last two weeks. That’s a scary proposition when going against the likes of Josh Allen, but I see this as a “circle the wagons” type game in Baltimore, who picked up their first win last week and easily could be 3-0 SU themselves, if not for a couple plays.

The first (obviously) was the potential game-tying TD being (correctly) overturned at Kansas City in Week 1. If WR Isaiah Likely’s toe was an inch shorter, then the Ravens might have gone for 2 and won that game in regulation. There was no excuse for blowing a 10-point 4Q lead here at home to the Raiders in Week 2, a game where Baltimore finished +121 in total yards. Last week though, for three quarters at least, we saw close to the “real” Ravens as they dominated the Cowboys (in Dallas), taking a 28-6 lead into the 4Q. Again, things got closer than they should have (final score 28-25), but that was thanks in part to some questionable officiating. 

Buffalo’s three wins have been against Arizona, Miami and Jacksonville, who are a combined 2-7 SU and one of those wins was because Miami beat Jacksonville. The Bills trailed the Cardinals by DD early, then the Week 2 dismantling of the Dolphins had more to do with Tua playing poorly, then getting hurt. As mentioned in the analysis for Vikings-Packers, teams that are 3-0 SU and underdogs have gone 6-19 SU, 9-15-1 ATS the L20 seasons including 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS L11 instances. Unlike that other game, I will elect to play the ML here (what my own power ratings say to do). That said, Lamar Jackson is 23-7 ATS all-time as a favorite of 3 pts or less, or as an underdog. 2% Baltimore ML (Play to -140)