3% Aston Villa (9:00 AM ET): I understand that Aston Villa has a Champions League match vs. Bayern Munich looming, and is coming off a EFL Cup match midweek. But the price here is way too short on what has objectively been a top three side in the Premier League this season. Thus far, only Liverpool and Man City have more points and a better xGD (expected goal differential) than the Villans, and here they are facing the club I would say is - by far - the worst in the EPL this season. Ipswich Town is dead last in both xGD and xPts (expected points). Quite frankly, based on that, they are very fortunate to have drawn three of their first five matches (still zero wins). 

The upcoming UCL match (at home) vs. Bayern Munich is big, but it’s not as if Villa was pushed midweek when they advanced in the EFL Cup with a 2-1 win over lower tier Wycombe. They led 2-0 after a late penalty and completely dominated possession (71.3%) for the match. Here in the Premier League, Unai Emery’s side has won 4 of 5, the lone blemish coming at the hands of Arsenal. We’ve already seen Villa defeat three other teams at or near the bottom of the table (Wolves, Everton, Leicester) and, again, it can’t be understated that Ipswich - on paper - is the weakest team in this league. 

Ipswich has scored a total of just three goals in five Premier League matches, never more than one in any individual fixture. The Tractor Boys have by far the lowest xG total (3.9) in the league, not to mention the highest xGA (expected goals allowed) at 12.85. Thus, these three consecutive draws they’ve pulled off (Fulham, Brighton, Southampton) seem like a pretty fortunate string of results. Last week against Southampton, it was a stoppage time equalizer after trailing 1-0 basically the entire match. They’ve yet to win the xG battle in any Premier League match this season. Ultimately, it will be Villa’s goal-scoring prowess (don’t forget they beat Young Boys 3-0 in the UCL) that get this one home as it should be an easy three points for the visitors. 3% Aston Villa (Play to -150)