Mets (8:10PM ET SNY, BSWI, MLB.TV) – Hanwha Eagles get it done so we have one win in the bag for Friday and I’ll head over to Major League Baseball where we look to finish strong in the final weekend of the regular season when the New York Mets hit the road to take on the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

I think a big deal was unnecessarily made about the Mets getting rained out in Atlanta the past two days and I’m seeing it as an advantage for this Mets team. This is somewhat unprecedented, the Mets just got two days off before the biggest weekend of their season and two extra days of rest for injured star Francisco Lindor.  That’s actually incredible when you think about it, the Mets can completely reset their rotation and plan out the next five days while everyone gets two days off to prepare for THIS game.  If Carlos Mendoza is smart, which I think he is, he will use this to galvanize the team (not that it’s needed as the Mets have been playing great ball for months). The “postseason starts today” for the Mets, there’s incentive to wrap up a playoff spot sooner than later (as it means some guys might not need to make the trip to Atlanta), so getting the Mets at -110 with all of the intangibles considered is outstanding value here. 

I hate the narrative that the Brewers “don’t care” because they are locked into the #3 seed.  As I said on First Pitch yesterday the Brewers still care, they will still play to win these games (like they did in Pittsburgh yesterday) but what Pat Murphy won’t do is exert any of his players past the point of regular work and that’s where the Mets have an edge here.  Murphy was quoted as saying “pitching decisions will be calculated this weekend” aka he plans to stick to pitch counts and spread innings around regardless of the game situation.  I can just about guarantee that means we won’t see closer Devin Williams here as he threw 21 pitches to close out yesterday’s win in Pittsburgh.  Nick Mears is likely unavailable as well and I could see a scenario where Murphy decides to not pitch Jared Koenig or Joel Payamps on back to back days and slate that duo in for tomorrow.  The reason this is all so important is the bullpen is the Brewers strength, Milwaukee has the second best bullpen in baseball this season but has also used their bullpen as much as any team.  If Milwaukee is to do anything in the playoffs this year they will need the ‘pen to be lights out so there’s no way anyone is “risked” in this series here.

Milwaukee will go with Frankie Montas to start, he was bombed by the Diamondbacks in his most recent start giving up 7 runs in 2.2 innings and I think this will be a test of sorts here.  Murphy won’t lift him early in this one, he’s going to leave Montas in for his full allotment of pitches to force him to fight for a rotation spot so if he’s bad it probably gets ugly and if he’s good there’s a good chance this solid Mets lineup gets exposure to him a third time through the order. That’s a Mets lineup that likely has Francisco Lindor back, he was ready to pinch hit on Tuesday and has now had two additional days to rest.  The Mets have had guys step up in his absence so they could opt to use Lindor off the bench here again and it would make no difference to me in terms of how much I like the Mets in this game.  Luisangel Acuna and Jose Iglesias are both hitting close to .400 the past couple weeks and I expect the Mets offense to not skip a beat here.

I don’t think Sean Manaea has gotten nearly enough credit for the season he’s had for the Mets.  Manaea made the adjustment to throw his sinker more and he’s quietly put together one of the best seasons of his career.  The Mets are a ridiculous 15-2 in Manaea’s last 17 starts and teams are hitting .171 against Manaea in that span.  The two rainouts give the Mets all of their bullpen arms rested and there are scenarios where the Mets can clinch a playoff spot by Sunday and send reserves to play the double header in Atlanta so huge incentive to use all the top guys if it means locking down a win here.  Milwaukee is 10-12 in their last 22 games and there’s no question the focus is on the playoffs.  I think this sets up favorably for the visitors here.  Play on Mets -110 for 4% (or 4 units)