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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(123) UL Lafayette at (124) Wake Forest

Event:
(123) UL Lafayette at (124) Wake Forest
Sport/League:
CFB
Date/Time:
September 28, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-120
Play:
4% – Wake Forest -3.0 (-120)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

You can get Wake Forest just about anywhere for -3 right now but the vig will vary

Personally played this at BetOnline for -3 (-120).  This is also available at BetRivers Wake Forest -3 (-124) and some offshores (which I can not quote here but there are plenty out there) have this -3 -115/-120

If your spot charges an astronomical amount for -3 you can always split this half Wake Forest -3.5 and half Wake Forest ML.  I think Wake -3 is a key enough number where I'm good laying the -120 here.

UPDATE: This is now Wake Forest -3 (-110) most places.  I thought that might be the case by gameday but I didn't want to risk missing a playable number which is why I locked in yesterday at Wake Forest -3 (-120).  You should now have no trouble getting -3.  

Analysis: I'm still kicking myself for not backing Virginia last week.  There was no doubt in my mind Virginia was better than Coastal Carolina and would probably win big but the fishy line and some of the market stuff scared me off of what ended up being a blowout win for the Cavaliers.

I see a similar scenario here, we have a Wake Forest team that choked away a game to that Virginia team and followed it up with an uncompetitive result to Ole Miss (in a game they were never going to win but came nowhere near covering) so I think the Demon Deacons take this “lesser” opponent more seriously.  This game also comes off a bye week, had Wake Forest won that game over Virginia they might be looking ahead to NC State but that won't be the case now as Wake can't afford a loss here, knowing if they do their chances of making a bowl game this season will be slim (just based on what the rest of their schedule looks like.

On the other side you have a Louisiana team coming off a tough loss, a home game against Tulane for them is a big deal and a couple of bad mistakes really cost the Ragin' Cajuns that game.  Louisiana has their Sun Belt opener coming up next week at Southern Miss so I wouldn't be at all surprised if internally that game takes priority over this one for this Ragin' Cajuns team.

In very similar fashion to last weeks Virginia/Coastal ACC vs Sun Belt matchup I think there's a substantial talent gap here.  Virginia had to go on the road and win that game (which they did by 19) while Wake Forest was off last week and has yet to leave Winston-Salem this season.

I thought the Wake Forest offense looked outstanding until they stalled out in the 4th quarter against Virginia in a game where the Demon Deacons still put up 544 yards of total offense.  I will give a pass for getting blown out by Ole Miss who appears to be one of the best teams in the country and ask Wake to bounce back and cover a small number against an inferior opponent at home here.

Play on Wake Forest -3 (-120) for 4% (or 4 units)  

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