4% Cleveland (6:10 ET): Both the Guardians and Astros have already clinched their respective divisions, however the former can still catch the Yankees for the top spot in the American League (and thus earn home field advantage in the playoffs). The Guardians’ hopes of earning home field took a hit last night though with a 5-2 loss to the ‘Stros where they were held to just three hits. That leaves them a game back of the Yankees for that top spot in the AL, which I’d say is important for the Guards as it would ensure both the Yankees and Astros are on the other side of the playoff bracket, and thus they’d avoid them both until the ALCS. 

Given all that, I am expecting Cleveland to bounce back Saturday with Ben Lively on the mound. We’re talking about a team with the best home record (50-29) in the American League and they rarely drop B2B games here at Progressive Field. They also have the top bullpen in all of MLB - by a pretty wide margin - as their relievers’ ERA is more than a half point lower than any other team. Thus, the key will be getting a good start from Lively, and considering his recent form, a good start is what we should expect tonight. Over his L3 starts, Lively has a 0.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with just one run allowed over 12 IP.  Opposing hitters have just a .467 OPS against him during that time. 

The Astros have also never faced Lively, which is typically an edge to the pitcher. No Yordan Alvarez in the Houston lineup this weekend either. Meanwhile, the Guardians are quite familiar with Astros’ starter Justin Verlander, who has been terrible since returning from the IL. This will be the 57th time in his career that Verlander is facing Cleveland. Obviously, many of the names in the current Guardians’ lineup have changed, but the bottom line is that Verlander right now is arguably at the lowest point in his career with an 8.89 ERA his L6 starts and only 16 strikeouts his last 27 ⅓ IP. 4% Cleveland (Play to -125)