2% Under Venezia/Roma (9:00 AM ET): Playing this Under at 2.75 goals, which - to be clear - means it’s a “split wager” on Under 2.5 and Under 3. We’re obviously rooting for two or fewer goals to be scored in this Sunday fixture over in Serie A. But if the two sides combine for three, then we only lose half our bet. But make no mistake about it, I’m expecting goals to be hard to come by in a battle of two sides whose previous matches this season have not been all that high-event. In fact, newly promoted Venezia had failed to score a single goal in three consecutive matches before last week’s 2-0 win over Genoa 

Looking at this Venezia side, there’s just not much to like as they’ve claimed just four points out of a possible 15 in their return to the Italian top flight. However, they have at least been a bit stingy on the back end, ranking middle of the pack in xGA (expected goals allowed). Three of the previous four matches have seen them concede 1 goal or fewer (AC Milan being the exception) and there have been two clean sheets. Their problem has been conceding early (no Serie A side has conceded more goals in the first 30 minutes this season), but I expect that to be a big point of emphasis heading into this match with Roma. 

Roma sacked Daniele De Rossi earlier this month after a four-match winless start to the Serie A campaign. The club opened with three draws in the first four matches, two of the goalless variety and the other 1-1 against Genoa. The other result was a 2-1 loss to Empoli. But then things got back on track last week with a 3-0 beatdown of Udinese. That was the second time in the last three Serie A matches where Roma allowed under 1.0 xGA. They also played to a 1-1 draw midweek in the Europa League against Athletic Bilbao. I would not be surprised if it’s a clean sheet here for Roma, who - again - has scored more than one goal themselves in only one match all season. 2% Under Venezia/Roma (Play down to 2.5)