4% Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Green Bay — 

By my numbers and rankings it is nearly impossible to keep Minnesota outside of my top 5 teams in the NFL at this moment in time. They rank 2nd in scoring defense (10.0), allowing just 30 points combined through the first 3 weeks of the year. 14 of the 32 teams in the NFL have allowed 30+ points in a single game this season and the Vikings have held the 49ers, Texans and Giants to 30 points combined! 

Green Bay has put up 25 PPG on average, but they played the Colts, Titans and Eagles in the F3 weeks. They could potentially have Jordan Love back this week, but it doesn’t look like he will be 100%. The Packers announced that Malik Willis could see time even if Love returns this weekend. Outside of the injury to their QB, 2 of their DBs in the secondary are listed on the injury report, including star CB Jaire Alexander. 

The Packers are 5th in YPG this season, while impressive, it is mainly because they are #1 in rushing YPG (204), barely edging out the Ravens, but both are leaps and bounds ahead of the 3rd best rushing team, in terms of yardage. They have ran the ball more than any team in the league, but Minnesota’s rush defense is top 3 in the NFL. They have held all 3 teams < 105 rushing yards this season, and 2 of the 3 under 100! 

Green Bay’s defense has had their successful moments as well this season, but their issues lie in the passing game and that very well could be exploited by Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings. No one in the league has recorded more passing TDs than the Vikings thus far, and the Packers have the 6th most passing TDs allowed through 3 weeks.

I think the Vikings have a legitimate chance of going 4-0 behind Darnold and this receiving core, despite starting the year w/o Hockenson, but getting a FG … this has to be my top play of the day!