3% Over Padres/D’backs (3:10 ET): This is a massive game for Arizona, who now needs a win and some help to get back to the postseason. Last year’s National League Champs picked the absolute wrong time to go into a slump as they’ve dropped five of six overall and are behind both the Braves and Mets in the race for the final two Wild Card spots. If they’d lose again Sunday, then they’d also need the Mets to lose AND get swept in a doubleheader with the Braves tomorrow. The way things are going right now, it’s tough to trust the D’backs, but I will back their bats today in a game I think goes Over the total. 

We’re talking about an Arizona team that is #1 overall (5.43 per game) and #1 at home (5.58) in runs scored by a wide margin. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them get shutout for the second time in four games last night. Manager Torey Lovullo admitted that "Offensively, we're all trying to do a little too much.” after the D’backs were held to just two HITS last night. Fortunately though, they’ll get to face Martin Perez on Sunday. With a 5.21 xERA and 4.68 FIP, Perez is due for some MAJOR regression. The San Diego southpaw is allowing a ton of hard contact, not to mention an average of 1.5 HRs per nine innings. I expect a blowup. 

The problem for Arizona Sunday is that they’ll have Brandon Pfaadt starting. I’ve defended Pfaadt in the past, but the bottom line is he is struggling mightily down the stretch with four or more runs allowed in six of his previous eight starts. I know last night’s score (5-0) was a little misleading in the sense that the Padres scored all five runs in the top of the ninth, but keep in mind that they also rested six regulars, including Luis Arraez. Arraez (going for the NL batting title) is expected back in the lineup today. This is a Padres’ lineup that leads MLB in batting average vs. righties (.273) and puts up nearly five runs per game on the road. 3% Over Padres/Dbacks (Play at 9.0 or lower)