3% Atlanta ML (8:15 ET): This is a situation where I’m basically drawing a “line in the sand” based on my own preseason projections. Like most, I projected Atlanta to be the winner of the NFC South this season. They are just 2-2 SU despite having played three home games (0-3 ATS) while it’s Tampa Bay leading the division right now with a 3-1 SU mark. Coming into the season, I LOVED the Bucs Under 7.5 wins as there was all sorts of negative regression on the profile, namely an unsustainable rate of 3rd down success from QB Baker Mayfield and the offense last year. Shockingly, the Bucs’ offense hasn’t seemed to “miss a beat” through the first four games, putting up an average of 24.3 PPG, good for 11th in the league. 

However, that number is skewed by a couple of 30+ point performances at home against the Commanders (Week 1) and the Eagles (last week). Coming off the 33-16 beatdown of Philly, I view this as an excellent “sell high” spot on the Bucs. First off, the Eagles were really banged up going into last week as they were without both starting receivers (Brown, Smith) as well as starting RT Lane Johnson. So that result was more about them. Let’s not forget two weeks ago when Tampa let Denver come in and beat them 26-7. Also, the Bucs’ lone road game to this point (at Detroit) was a VERY fortunate win as they got outgained 463-216. 

The Falcons have played nothing but close games to this point (which is why I am playing the ML here). The defense didn’t allow a TD in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, then the team really pulled one out of the fire at Philadelphia on MNF. I thought the Dirty Birds were screwed by a non-PI call in the end zone against the Chiefs, but then benefited from one last week they won “at the gun” on a 58-yard FG by Koo over the Saints. Yes, they failed to score an offensive TD in that Saints game. But this is an improved team defensively and Tampa Bay has a cluster of injuries at WR. A win here moves the Falcons into a first place tie, so it’s a huge game that I just don’t see them dropping at home. 3% Atlanta ML (Play to -140)