Astros (2:32PM ET ABC) – Mets get it done to cash our final move of the MLB regular season and it’s on to the playoffs where the Houston Astros kick off the Wild Card around against the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.

LINE PARAMETERS: I want to first address the -143 price tag and willingness to lay that in the playoffs here.  You will never see me lay -143 day to day in MLB during the regular season but I approach the Playoffs differently and I’m willing to go up to -150 vig on sides during the postseason.  That can be a slippery slope, which is why I’ll be ultra selective, but it’s also a necessity at times as the books will price most of these games in the +120/-140 range. If I’m going to make the decision to lay -140 I will typically ask myself if I like the play enough to make it a 5% play. In this case the answer is YES, so -140 playing to win 4% gives me roughly the same risk as a 5% play priced in that usual -105 to -115 range.

Now that we got that out of the way on to why I love the Astros here. The Tigers making the playoffs is a fantastic story but their wild run through August and September was fueled primarily by beating non-playoff teams.  Detroit also got hot at the right time, but now hits the road to face one of the few teams in MLB that has been just as hot as the Tigers and Astors have arguably been the two best teams in the American League since the All-Star Break.  Detroit’s roster resembles what AAA Toledo’s roster looked like at the beginning of the season which is why the run the Tigers have been on since trading away Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline is even more remarkable.  While no one can deny Detroit has played excellent ball, I do think winning a road playoff game is completely different than stringing wins together in the dog days of summer.  That’s where I think Houston has a substantial edge here, the Tigers haven’t been to the playoffs since 2014 and there’s virtually zero playoff experience on this Detroit roster.  Houston, on the other hand, is loaded with postseason experience and has been so good in the past decade they have only had to play in the Wild Card round once in the past seven seasons.  That was back in 2020, in a similar set up to this one, where they went out and swept the Twins.  Willing to back the Astros playoff pedigree with a favorable spot/matchup on their home field here.

Houston starts Framber Valdez, he’s struggled in the postseason during his career but he’s also locked in on one of the best runs of his life right now.  Houston is 14-2 the last 16 times Valdez has toed the rubber and he’s got a 2.19 ERA during that span.  I weight pitching into my handicap less in the playoffs than I do the regular season (because managers have so many different ways to pivot) and if you throw out starting pitchers here I think the Astros are more like -200 in this game.  The bias keeping this line in check is Tarik Skubal on the mound for Detroit, he’s a phenomenal pitcher and one of the best in the league but so is Valdez.  Skubal got knocked around by the Astros once already this season and I don’t think there’s anything here to suggest either starter just goes out and shuts down the other team.  What I can say with confidence is Houston has the better offense and will likely generate more scoring opportunities over the course of a nine inning game.  In most cases Houston is a -180/-200 home favorite over the Tigers so I think there’s too much market love here for Skubal considering Valdez is an equally viable option on the other side and starting pitching tends to matter less (from a pregame numbers perspective in my opinion) in the playoffs. 

The best player on the field today will be Yordan Alvarez, he’s been a beast in the playoffs over the years for the Astros and posted a near record 1.487 OPS during the 2023 playoffs with a whopping 6 HR in 11 games.  Detroit doesn’t have anyone like that on their roster and that will ultimately be the difference here.  Play on Astros -143 for 4% (or 4 units)